Ocean Spot Rates Tumble as Peak Season Ends Abruptly

Transpacific rates see double-digit declines while carriers push for hikes on Asia-Europe routes.

LONDON, November 14 — The global container spot market is signaling the definitive end of the 2025 peak season. The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) dropped 5% this week to $1,859 per 40ft container, snapping a four-week streak of gains. The decline was driven by a sharp correction in the Transpacific trade, where rates from Shanghai to New York plummeted 15% to $3,254, and rates to Los Angeles fell 12% to $2,328.  

‍Transpacific Slumps as Europe Holds Firm

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The data reveals a diverging market.

• Transpacific Weakness: The double-digit drop on US-bound lanes confirms that the "tariff rush", importers frontloading cargo to beat potential new duties, has largely concluded. With retail inventories stocked for the holidays, demand has evaporated, forcing carriers to surrender recent General Rate Increase (GRI) gains.  
• Asia-Europe Resilience: Conversely, rates from Shanghai to Genoa rose 4% to $2,193, and to Rotterdam increased 3% to $2,028. This uptick reflects aggressive carrier actions to establish a higher baseline for 2026 contract negotiations by implementing new Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates effective mid-November.  

The Market’s New Reality

• Composite Index: $1,859 per 40ft container (Down 5% WoW).  
• Shanghai-New York: $3,254 (Down 15%).  
• Shanghai-Genoa: $2,193 (Up 4%).

Outlook on the Horizon: Calm Winds, Softer Seas

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Drewry anticipates that spot rates will likely soften slightly or remain stable in the coming weeks as the market enters its traditional slack period. However, the consultancy's longer-term outlook warns that the supply-demand balance is set to weaken over the next few quarters, particularly if transits through the Suez Canal normalize, which would reinject massive capacity back into the system.  

What the Rate Plunge Really Signals

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The sudden drop in Transpacific rates is a "reality check" for the market. The artificial volume boost from tariff fears masked the underlying softness in consumer demand. We are now seeing the floor fall out as that urgency fades. Carriers on the Asia-Europe trade are fighting a different battle, trying to artificially prop up spot rates to influence contract discussions, but without sustained volume support, these gains may be fleeting.